4-8 Mar 2013 Cotonou (Benin)
Tuesday 5
Tutorial 2
Prof. A. Alioum
› 11:30 - 12:30 (1h)
› Salle de conférence 2
Multi-state models: a flexible approach for modelling complex event histories in epidemiology
Ahmadou Alioum  1@  , Benoit Liquet  2, 3@  
1 : Institut de Santé Publique, d'Epidémiologie et de Développement  (ISPED)
Université Victor Segalen - Bordeaux II
146 rue Léo Signat 33076 Bordeaux Cedex -  France
2 : INSERM U897, University Victor Segalen, Bordeaux, France
Inserm, Université Victor Segalen - Bordeaux II
University Victor Segalen, Bordeaux, France -  France
3 : MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, UK

Multi-state models are natural generalizations of survival models (two-state models). One reason to construct multi-state models in epidemiology is to provide more comprehensive picture of disease processes than that given by considering the onset of a single terminating
event. Another reason is to more effectively handle incomplete disease histories. Multi-state models can be specified via transition intensities between states or in the framework of multivariate counting processes. Assumptions have to be made about the law of the processes
involved: Markov and semi-Markov assumptions are the most common. The purpose of analysing event histories data using multi-state models is to gain insight into the dynamics of the processes under study by: quantifying transition rates and assessing their dependence on
covariates; computing various types of transition probabilities; making predictions. In this tutorial, we will present generalities on multi-states models and discuss some inference problems that may arise in the presence interval censoring. Examples from longitudinal
studies of diseases will be considered using existing R packages.


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